This is an attempt to apply what I call hidden dynamics (or indicators) to economic forecasting based off observations of the amount and frequency of garbage placed out for collection combined with all the service related traffic on my street.
Simply put by my observations of the daily cycles and routines on my block I have turned these events into economic indicators which tell me:
- The Poor are receiving their tax returns or rebates in many cases and are quickly converting them into big flat screen TV's, computers and the accessories that go along with them. In Bush speak they are being "Patriotic". This "consumer confidence" will quickly dissipate as the checks stop coming and the costs to fuel their new found gadgets combined with ever increasing power costs will be all they can manage just to keep the air on.
- The Middle is currently the shit in the proverbial shit sandwich and is being squashed into something new. I'm hoping for consciousness! Their garbage shows this in it's frugality and after separation of recyclables there is little left. They are streamlining, repairing instead of replacing and done with less and have no doubt lived in the constraints of their paychecks more then at anytime this century. As this class applies the 3 R's, Reduce, Reuse and Recycle, oldies but goodies, they will continue on as they have in regards to this economy with timid economic confidence as they see their jobs given to others or just disappear. But this year they'll take a vacation and they have earned it.
- Then there are those who 'deserve it' which brings me to The Top. It's been difficult for them in these trying times justifying their luxuries so they have been concentrating on their needs and investing into their living spaces. The contractors and crews fill the street daily hauling and installing the latest upgrades available as delivery trucks one after another unload the latest spoils and supplies ordered off the internet. This will be a good year for The Top as was last year and the year before. Their garbage has grown bigger over the last several years even though now more is recycled and taken away by others. Watching all this play out in front of my eyes reminds me of and is proof that the neoconservative agenda of Reaganomics consisting of voodoo economics and trickle down theory are alive and well today.
So let me get to predicting here:
- The Poor are Poor and the #'s seem to be growing! As the recession drags on and states cut off more services this epidemic will become more evident even though the fed's are adopting new poverty guidelines which will increase current numbers. But after 40+ years of "Happy Accounting/Reporting" the poverty figure chosen for the new guidelines are unrealistic and once officially published will be circumvented by the states due to the lack of ability to pay for any more or increased entitlements. After a long, hot and expensive (gas $4?) summer come the holidays and a wave of reports showing lines of people needing food and services that will start an "impromptu" social media marketing pitch by retailers who will donate to whatever cause on your behalf when you purchase their enlightened brand of thinking. This is not necessarily a bad thing especially if our politicians don't much care to take on these issues.
- The Middle will continue to keep their heads down, work harder and when all is said and done get payed less for it. Their garbage will become less as they watch everything from their weight to receipts and maybe even read their benefit plan explanations and with what little money they have left going towards a well deserved family vacation. So expect a summertime bump if you live in a tourist spot or summer play area and outside of that they will continue their practice of frugality and the 3 R's while hoping they keep their jobs. I should say more on the Middle since everyone puts such high hopes on them for everyone's sake. As the economy and the war muddle along it will be this class that advocates most for new fiscal policy reforms addressing the connection between the costs of foreign occupations/wars verses domestic concerns on spending.
- The Top has already begun to openly spend again with catered house parties (catering and party rental trucks galore) to show off their newest and freshest whatever from whomever (it all has names) and to plan for the upcoming summer social season now that the dust has settled and a new order revealed. But mostly I think that they think it's OK to relax. They has made it through till now and they still have a view. The rest of the neighborhood not trying to lynch them and they know it. As long as they are not flaunting, no ones faulting: everyone wishes the life for themselves.
Summary: Garbage will continue to decrease in volume in the bottom two tiers of the block while increasing for the top. Delivery service's will increase their overall market, driving a small increase in e-commerce from all levels, however, small local merchants will feel a decrease in sales due to it. Look for a slow recovery with luxury goods and services leading the way followed by media content providers who are increasingly hooking users into a virtual world of expensive data plans and soon to come virtual goods.